M&A Analysis

How to Evaluate
an M&A Deal

Model an acquisition from start to finish—target financials, debt structure, earnouts, combined projections, covenant testing, and equity returns. Supports single deals and multi-deal evaluation configs.

12 min read Platform Guide

Before You Start

Step 1—Navigate to M&A

From the main navigation, select M&A. You'll work through the tabs roughly in order:

TabPurpose
Deal ManagerCreate and manage deals
Deal SetupConfigure deal terms, earnout, seller notes
Target FinancialsEnter the target company's financial data
FinancingStructure acquisition debt
Sources & UsesVerify the close-day cash waterfall balances
Earnout ConfigDetailed earnout schedule
Deal SummaryThe results—projections, covenants, valuation
Covenant & ValuationConfigure covenant step-downs and exit multiples
ScenariosCreate performance scenarios (Base/Upside/Downside)
Business ProfileCombined entity revenue mix analysis

Step 2—Create a Deal

  1. Enter a Deal ID (short identifier, e.g., "meridian") and Deal Name.
  2. Enter the target company name and select the close date (year and month).
  3. Choose the Debt Structure: Unitranche (single blended loan, simpler) or Traditional (senior term loan + sub debt + revolver, potentially cheaper blended rate).
  4. Enter the purchase price and click Create Deal.

The system automatically seeds 7 years of target financial placeholders (2 historical + close year + 4 projection years), default debt instruments based on your structure choice, and a Base Case scenario.

Close date matters. A mid-year close (e.g., July) means the target only contributes 6 months of revenue and EBITDA in the close year. The system prorates everything automatically, but covenant metrics for a partial year are annualized—so a strong 6-month result may look different when annualized.

Step 3—Configure Deal Terms

On the Deal Setup tab:

Core Terms

FieldWhat to Enter
Purchase PriceTotal cash to seller at close
Transaction ExpensesLegal, advisory, diligence costs (typically 2–3% of deal value)
TTM EBITDA OverrideIf the seller provides trailing 12-month EBITDA, enter here—used for transaction multiples
Tax RateCombined federal/state rate as a decimal (e.g., 0.25 = 25%)

Seller Notes & Equity Rollover

FieldWhat It Means
Existing Seller Note (Assumed)Debt from the target that you're assuming at close
New Seller NoteFinancing provided by the seller as part of the deal
Target Equity RolloverTarget shareholders reinvest this amount in the combined entity (reduces cash needed at close)

Earnout Configuration

If the deal includes an earnout, enter the total earnout pool and define up to 5 measurement periods. For each period:

FieldWhat It Means
Measurement YearThe fiscal year when target GP is measured
Payment YearWhen the earnout is actually paid (typically ~7 months after the measurement year ends)
Base AmountMaximum earnout available for this period
GP ThresholdMinimum gross profit before any earnout is earned (the floor)
GP TargetGP at which 100% of the base is earned (the goal)
Carryover %Percentage of unearned earnout that rolls to the next period (e.g., 75%)

How the earnout calculates:

If Target GP < Threshold:  Payment = $0
If Target GP ≥ Target:     Payment = Base Amount (100%)
If in between:             Payment = Base × (GP − Threshold) / (Target − Threshold)

Example: $1M base, $8M threshold, $10M target
  Target GP = $7M  → $0 (below threshold)
  Target GP = $9M  → $1M × ($9M−$8M) / ($10M−$8M) = $500K (50%)
  Target GP = $10M → $1M (100%)

Carryover preserves deal dynamics. If only 50% is earned in Period 1 and carryover is 75%, then 75% of the unearned $500K ($375K) rolls to Period 2's available base—a rough Year 1 doesn't kill the entire earnout.

Step 4—Enter Target Financials

On the Target Financials tab, enter 7 years of data:

RowInput?What to Enter
RevenueYesAnnual revenue in dollars
Gross Margin %YesAs a decimal (0.35 = 35%)
Indirect ExpensesYesOperating costs not in COGS (SG&A, R&D, etc.)
AdjustmentsYesEBITDA add-backs (non-recurring items, owner salary normalization)
DepreciationYesAnnual D&A
Gross Profit / EBITDA / Adj. EBITDAAutoCalculated from your inputs

Use audited financials or quality of earnings numbers for historical years. For projection years, use management projections adjusted for your diligence findings.

!

Common add-backs include owner compensation above market, one-time legal costs, non-recurring project losses, and above-market rent in a related-party lease arrangement. Only add back items that genuinely won't recur under your ownership.

Step 5—Structure the Financing

On the Financing tab, configure the debt instruments that fund the acquisition. The tab first shows your existing debt at close (read-only)—the acquisition lender must provide enough to retire this AND fund the purchase price.

Instrument Configuration

FieldWhat to Enter
TypeUnitranche, Senior, Sub Debt, Revolver, or Seller Note
PrincipalLoan amount (disabled if marked as Plug)
Interest RateAnnual cash interest rate (e.g., 0.085 = 8.5%)
PIK RatePayment-in-kind rate for sub debt (accrues to balance, no cash required)
TermAmortization period in years
Facility CapRevolver only: maximum borrowing limit

For each instrument, enter a mandatory amortization schedule—the percentage of original principal required each year. Typical for GovCon acquisitions:

Year 1: 2%   Year 2: 5%   Year 3: 10%   Year 4: 10%   Year 5: 100% (balloon)

The Plug instrument: Mark exactly one instrument as the Plug. Its principal auto-sizes to make Sources = Uses. If your total uses are $25M and other sources total $18M, the plug is sized to $7M. This mirrors how real deals work.

Step 6—Verify Sources & Uses

Switch to Sources & Uses and click Recompute Sources & Uses.

Uses: Cash to Seller, Retire existing bank debt (always retired at close), Transaction Expenses, and any notes flagged for retirement.

Sources: Seller Notes, Target Equity Rollover, each debt instrument's principal, and the plug instrument (auto-sized).

The system confirms Sources = Uses with a green checkmark. Below the waterfall, transaction multiples are shown:

MultipleCalculation
Cash MultiplePurchase Price / Target Adj. EBITDA
Total Proceeds Multiple(Purchase Price + Max Earnout) / Target Adj. EBITDA

GovCon cash multiples typically range 4–8x depending on size, growth, and contract quality. If your multiple is above 7x, scrutinize the target's growth projections carefully.

Step 7—Read the Deal Summary

The Deal Summary tab is the results dashboard—where all the modeling comes together.

Hero Metrics

MetricWhat It Tells You
Combined EBITDAYour EBITDA + target EBITDA (prorated for partial close year)
Sr Bank LeverageSenior bank debt / Combined EBITDA—the metric your lender watches most
FCCR(EBITDA − Taxes) / Fixed Charges—can you service all obligations?
Total DebtEverything: term loans + revolver + sub debt + seller notes
Equity ValueEnterprise value minus all debt

The Cash Flow Waterfall

The most important table for understanding deal viability:

Combined Adj. EBITDA          $12,500K
Less: Cash Interest           ($2,100K)
Less: Taxes                   ($1,800K)
Less: CapEx                     ($250K)
Less: NWC Change                ($150K)
──────────────────────────────────────
FCF BEFORE DEBT SERVICE        $8,200K   ← Can you pay your debts?

Less: Mandatory Amortization  ($1,500K)
Less: Earnout Payment           ($750K)
──────────────────────────────────────
FCF AFTER DEBT SERVICE         $5,950K   ← What's left for the equity
!

If FCF After Debt Service is negative, the model automatically draws on the revolver to survive. Persistent revolver draws year-over-year are a red flag—the deal isn't generating enough cash.

Credit Statistics & Covenant Compliance

Year-by-year covenant testing for Senior Bank Leverage and FCCR. The leverage arc tells the story: in a healthy deal, leverage starts high (4–5x at close) and drops steadily. By Year 5 it should be 2–3x. If leverage stays flat or increases, the target isn't growing as expected.

Pro Forma Valuation (MOIC)

Combined Adj. EBITDA (Year 5)     $18,500K
× Exit Multiple                         7.0x
= Enterprise Value               $129,500K

Less: All Debt                   ($18,700K)
────────────────────────────────────────────
Equity Value                     $110,800K

Cash MOIC:  3.2x  (Equity Value / Purchase Price)
Total MOIC: 2.8x  (Equity Value / (Purchase Price + Earnout))

GovCon PE targets typically look for 2.5–3.5x Cash MOIC over 5 years. Cash MOIC is the primary return metric—how many times you get your cash investment back.

Step 8—Configure Covenants and Exit Multiples

On the Covenant & Valuation tab, set per-year covenant thresholds:

FieldTypical PatternWhat It Means
Max Leverage5.5x → 5.0x → 4.5x → 4.0xGets tighter over time as synergies are realized
Min FCCR1.10x → 1.15x → 1.20xCoverage requirement increases as integration stabilizes
Exit Multiple5.0x → 6.0x → 7.0x → 8.0xHigher multiples at higher scale

Step 9—Run Scenarios

On the Scenarios tab, create performance variants:

ScenarioExample InputsWhat It Models
UpsideTarget Revenue +10%, Target Margin +200 bps, Earnout 100%Target outperforms; cross-sell lifts acquirer
Downside / Credit CaseTarget Revenue −10%, Target Margin −150 bps, Earnout 0%Target loses key contract; integration drag; misses earnout
!

The credit case is what your lender cares about most. If the deal services its debt and passes covenants in the downside scenario, it's financeable. If the downside breaks covenants, the lender will require more equity, tighter terms, or a lower purchase price.

Step 10—Multi-Deal Evaluation

If you're evaluating multiple acquisitions simultaneously, create an Evaluation Config: select 2+ deals, set a synchronized close date, configure combined debt instruments, and set combined covenant thresholds.

AspectSingle DealMulti-Deal (Eval Config)
FinancingPer-deal instrumentsShared instruments across all deals
CovenantsPer-deal thresholdsUnified thresholds for combined entity
ScenariosPer-deal adjustmentsEach deal picks its own scenario independently
RevenueAcquirer + 1 targetAcquirer + all targets combined

The evaluation config is a lens, not a mutation. It doesn't change any individual deal's data. It creates a combined projection view that shows what happens if you do all selected deals together.

You can mix scenarios across deals—Meridian on Upside and Axiom on Credit Case—to answer: "If Meridian outperforms but Axiom underperforms, do we still pass covenants?" Quick presets let you run All Base, All Upside, or All Downside with one click.

Key M&A Concepts

Leverage Multiple

Leverage = Total Funded Debt / Adj. EBITDA

In GovCon, 4–6x is typical for platform acquisitions; 3–4x for tuck-ins. The leverage arc should decline from ~5x at close to ~2.5x by Year 5 through debt amortization and EBITDA growth.

FCCR (Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio)

FCCR = (EBITDA − Taxes) / (Interest + Mandatory Amort + Earnout + CapEx)

For every dollar of fixed obligations, how many dollars of cash flow do you generate? 1.2x minimum is standard—below that, you can't reliably service your debt.

PIK Interest

Payment-in-kind interest accrues and adds to the loan balance instead of requiring cash payment. This preserves cash flow in early years, but the balance grows. At maturity, you owe more than you borrowed.

The Operator's View

My boss once told me that M&A deals get done when both the buyer and the seller are equally unhappy. If either side is significantly more unhappy than the other, one of two things happened: the deal blew up, or someone got screwed. That framing has stuck with me through every transaction I’ve been involved in since.

Every M&A deal has a qualitative and a quantitative dimension. The quantitative side is the model—purchase price, structure, debt capacity, returns. The qualitative side is everything else: the capabilities, the customers, the culture, the strategic rationale. The goal is to get enough comfort with the numbers that you can let the qualitative upside actually breathe. Because getting a deal done is grueling. There will be days and hours that test your conviction. You need the strategic logic to carry you through when the process tries to grind you down.

A few things I’ve learned the hard way:

Always model three cases—credit, base, and upside. Then haircut the credit case harder than feels reasonable, and do the same with base. It will feel egregious. Do it anyway. I’ve closed deals that were ultimately very successful where years one and two were defined by completely unforeseen external events. Give the deal breathing room. Getting into a cash bind in year one and having to cut costs, reduce indirects, and salvage what’s left is how you torpedo what could have been a transformational outcome.

Structure earnouts around what genuinely worries you. An earnout tied to something arbitrary or indefensible is an easy way to kill a deal—and it should be, because you’ll never be able to explain it with a straight face. The easiest conversations are the truthful ones. If there’s a real risk, you’ll be able to articulate exactly why you structured the deal the way you did. If you can’t, that’s a signal the structure is wrong.

Common Questions

What if the deal doesn't pass covenants?
Four options: (1) Reduce the purchase price (lower debt = lower leverage). (2) Increase equity (more cash from sponsors/rollover, less debt). (3) Negotiate looser covenants with the lender. (4) Improve target projections—but only if defensible.
How do I know if the earnout thresholds are realistic?
Compare the GP thresholds to the target's historical GP on the Target Financials tab. If the threshold is 20% above the target's best historical year, it's aggressive. The system shows projected Target GP next to each earnout period for this comparison.
What's the difference between Senior Bank Leverage and Total Leverage?
Senior Bank Leverage only counts senior/unitranche debt + revolver—what the bank provided. Total Leverage includes sub debt and seller notes. The bank's covenant is on senior leverage; total leverage is an internal planning metric.
Can I model a deal without an earnout?
Yes—leave Earnout Total at $0. The earnout schedule will be disabled and earnout lines will show $0 in the projections.
How does the revolver work in the projections?
The revolver acts as a cash buffer. If Free Cash Flow After Debt Service is negative in a given year, the model automatically draws on the revolver (up to the facility cap). If FCF is positive and there's a revolver balance, the model automatically pays it down.
What does 'annualized' mean for a partial close year?
If you close in July, the target contributes 6 months of revenue and EBITDA. For covenant testing, the system annualizes these numbers (×12/6) to make them comparable to full-year thresholds. This is standard practice—lenders test annualized stub-year metrics.