Arcvue
Forecasting—the seats that are not filled
Not every billable seat is occupied every day, and a forecast should say so.
The vacancy factor is the share of billable positions you expect to be empty at any moment. It reduces a revenue forecast to the staffing you will actually have rather than the staffing the contract allows. Arcvue applies it inside the contract forecast, so the plan is built on the seats you will fill.
Gross revenue, less the seats you will not fill.
Basis a worked adjustment at an illustrative factor. Synthetic sample. Five percent of a ten million dollar contract is half a million of revenue that was never going to arrive.
Four reasons, and none of them are unusual.
- Turnover. Somebody leaves and a replacement takes four to eight weeks.
- Clearance. The hire is ready and the clearance is not.
- Ramp-up. A new win is rarely fully staffed on day one.
- Scarce categories. Some labor categories are simply hard to fill.
| Factor | When it fits |
|---|---|
| 2 to 3% | Stable long-running work, low turnover, no clearance requirement. |
| 5% | The industry default for most GovCon T&M work. |
| 7 to 10% | High-clearance programs, high turnover, or scarce categories. |
Basis conventional factors. Your own history is a better guide than any of them.
Applied where a forecast is built from staffing rather than from history.
Contract forecasting applies the factor to staffing-based projections, so the revenue line reflects the seats you expect to fill rather than the seats the contract permits.