Arcvue
Pipeline and growth—whether the year is winnable
Enough pipeline to hit the number, and why one times is never enough.
Coverage is pipeline value over the revenue gap you have to fill. Three times means three dollars of pipeline for every dollar you need to win—and you need it, because you will not win all of it. Arcvue measures it against your own growth target, by division and by year, rather than reporting what happens to be in the pipeline.
Your win rate decides how much pipeline the gap actually requires.
GovCon win rates typically run between twenty and forty percent. At twenty-five, a five million dollar gap needs twenty million of pipeline just to break even on expectation.
Basis a worked gap at an illustrative win rate. Synthetic sample. Four times coverage here is not comfort—it is the break-even, before anything goes wrong.
What a coverage number is telling you.
| Coverage | What it means |
|---|---|
| Under 2.00 | Not enough opportunity to sustain growth. |
| 2.00 to 3.00 | Tight. You have to be winning at a high rate. |
| 3.00 to 5.00 | Healthy for most GovCon firms. |
| Over 5.00 | Strong—if the pipeline is real. Check the qualification before the number. |
Basis conventional bands. They move with company size, win rate, and how hard the pipeline is qualified.
Unweighted coverage is the raw pipeline total. Weighted coverage multiplies each opportunity by its probability. The unweighted number is always the flattering one, and it is the one most often quoted.
Coverage against the target, computed from the pipeline you actually have.
Pipeline holds the opportunities and their probabilities; the coverage figure is derived from them rather than entered, so it moves when the pipeline does.